| Huseyn Bayramov, Amide Aliyeva, Sevda Akhmedova, Rena Huseynova, Hikmat Asadov Issues of Constructing an Integrated Fire Hazard Assessment System |
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| Abstract. The article discusses issues related to the development of an integrated fire hazard assessment system for forest areas based on improvements to the existing FMA and FMA+ indices. The authors analyze the methodological basis of the indices used in Brazil and other countries and propose modifications that allow for more accurate consideration of the influence of meteorological factors, in particular precipitation intensity, relative humidity, and wind speed. The proposed methodology is based on a probabilistic correction of index values depending on discrete precipitation values, which allows for a more accurate assessment of forest fire risk. The task of minimizing the integral fire hazard index using variational calculus methods is formulated. An analytical expression has been obtained that describes the optimal ratio between wind speed and relative humidity at which the fire hazard index is minimal.The developed model allows for the improvement of the forest fire warning system and can serve as a basis for the further development of intelligent systems for monitoring and managing natural risks. |
| Keywords: Forest fires, fire hazard, FMA index, FMA+ index, integrated control system, meteorological parameters, variational optimization |
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